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Helgi
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 01:08 pm |
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| People I talk to are telling me the dollar is going to shit. I am watching stuff on TV here about people losing their houses and that Jim Kramer guy calling it armaggedon. But how bad is it really?
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"We have a lady who is most high and mighty, high she is and holy, nobles love her for this. She is called Freo, well does she direct them, Freo, our lady, we give to her Friday." -From the poem 'Brut', by the 13C poet Layamon
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*Phil*
Opinionated Interventionist
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 04:26 pm |
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Things are not real bad yet. In terms of the ordinary guy on the street there are pockets for trouble. Adjustable rate mortgages are adjusting upwards causing a lot of folks to default on their payments. This is causing many people to defer buying other stuff like cars. Too many houses on the market and not enough buyers in some areas causing values to decline. My house in Florida has been on the market for a month and we haven't had a signle offer ,yet here in North Carolina a house gets sold in just a couple of weeks with numerous offers.So far the problem is in the credit area. It is real hard to get a loan. Suddenly the bankers realized they had made a lot of real dumb loans over the past several years. On top of these dumb loans were written 20 trillion dollars in derivatives. The strength of a credit derivative is weaker then the losing party in the contract. When the owner of the derivative wants to sell it they have to make real the underlying credit. We're talking 20 trillion dollars that will have to be made real or lost. Too much toxic waste in the system. ANyhow this is just the beginning, a lot of the big guys have discovered that their Money Market accounts connot be accessed because they are full of these toxic commercial paper that nobody wants to buy.
The IMF has just reported their findings on currency values and manipulation: The US Dollar is overvalued. The US Secretary of the Treasury slammed the finding saying currency cannot be valued! LOL
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Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Roy
Quasi-Infallible Egocentric Tyrant
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 04:56 pm |
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The next prez is in for some shit. Very big time shit.
That was a good explanation, Phil. So the number is 20 TRILLION DOLLARS!
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"The force and degree of a man's inner benevolence evokes in others a proportionate degree of ill-will" - Gurdjieff
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." — George Orwell
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*Phil*
Opinionated Interventionist
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 07:24 pm |
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Back in June the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta was asked
Why do credit derivatives matter to financial markets?
Well, I think the first reason is, as I mentioned, the large growth in the market. As of 1997, there was $180 billion in credit default swaps traded. That ballooned to over $20 trillion in 2006, so the sheer magnitude of the trade in these instruments reflects the value of this innovation to market participants but also causes us to want to look at them a little more closely.
I should mention the major participants are banks, hedge funds, and insurance companies. Conceptually, any innovation like this that unbundles risk allows these risks to be priced more efficiently. This allows participants to hedge and allows capital to flow more freely to its highest-valued use. So this has great benefits not only for financial markets but for our economy more generally.
However, there are some concerns or potential for what we call "systemic risk"—the risk of spillovers of any kind of adverse event in this market to the larger financial market. The reasons that there are some concerns are, one, that these contracts are largely bilateral. They're under the radar. They're agreed to by two individual counterparties, not regulated through any exchanges. They involve a large notional amount. That means the value of the credit default swaps being traded out there is some 14 to 18 times the value of the underlying bonds on which these instruments are written. In addition, the participation of hedge funds causes some concern because again, hedge funds largely operate under the regulatory radar, and so we're never certain from a policy perspective exactly what risks are being taken and whether they're being effectively monitored.
Finally, this market has largely been untested. We've been through a very positive credit environment recently, and we don't really know what will happen if there is a major credit event on a large scale and how that might ripple through the financial system.
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Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Roy
Quasi-Infallible Egocentric Tyrant
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 08:09 pm |
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Choas theory thinking supports the idea that unknown, untested combinations of elements may have properties, strengths and weaknesses, that are really unforeseen.
And, so it may well be that we have found the "Achilles' Heel" of international finance, the downside of a "world market". I have no objective knowledge of what 20 trillion dollars means.
All I can say is that it is a very big number and sounds like it could be the gash in the side of the "unsinkable" SS Titanic.
Given all the other problems that we have, it might also be the proverbial straw that went above and beyond the capacities of one fabled camel.
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"The force and degree of a man's inner benevolence evokes in others a proportionate degree of ill-will" - Gurdjieff
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." — George Orwell
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*Phil*
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 09:41 pm |
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I saw a foils of a presentation given at a Central Bankers convention on Credit Deriviatives. Too bad the speach itself wasn't included. The preesentation concluded from simulations of credit contractions that Credit Derivatives reinforce credit contraction in a feed-back loop and resulted in a "liquidity black hole". These simulations may be an accurate model becuase then news seems to verify it:
The ECB said the 275 billion-euro allotment announced Tuesday was about 46 billion euros ($61.9 billion) more than it had estimated, in part because banks that use the euro are still seeking extra cash.
Despite that, Tuesday's cash infusion was significantly lower than the ECB's tender last week, when it lent 310 billion euros ($417.7 billion), and also less than the 292.5 billion euros ($393.5 billion) it lent the week before.
ECB funding fails to relieve euro interbank market
FRANKFURT, Aug 23 (Reuters) - The European Central Bank's first ever emergency injection of three-month funds was swamped with demand from banks on Thursday, but brought little relief to an interbank lending market beset by credit worries.
Euro zone banks snapped up the 40 billion euros ($54.2 billion) in funding after bidding for more than three times the amount on offer, as the ECB tried to reduce borrowing costs in one of the markets hardest hit by the global credit squeeze.
But indicative prices for three-month lending <EUR3MD=> were barely changed after the tender, quoted at a bid/ask spread of 4.65/4.70 percent, according to Reuters data, versus 4.65/4.71 percent before the announcement.
"The people who require the money still can't get the money. The money is lying in the wrong place and wrong bank accounts. The people who have it aren't lending it out," said a money market trader at a large bank.
It looks like the emergency liquidity is being absorbed without a trace!
"The Whole Town’s Gone Crazy”
To see the fearful psychology that mortgage lenders, hedge funds, and now money market funds and banks have been dealing with start at the 51 minute marker of this movie. George Bailey goes from “Float away to happy land on the bubbles” to “look we’re still in business; we still got two bucks left.” The run for cash has just started; we have a long way to go before most assets are undervalued in historical terms.
Check this out:
Only Yesterday: An Informal History of the 1920’s by Fredrick Lewis Allen
Written in 1931,
“You will not be able to go far, in the central part of any of the big cities, without hearing the deafening clatter of riveters, for although the Florida boom went to pieces in 1926, and the boom in suburban developments-which has been filling up the open spaces in the outskirts of the cities with Cotswold Terraces and Rosemont Groves and Woodmere Drives-has been lagging since 1927, the boom in apartment-house construction and particularly in office-building construction is still going full tilt. Not in the poorer districts are the riveters noisiest, but at the centers of big business and of residential wealth, for it is the holders and manipulators of securities who are the chief beneficiaries of this last speculative phase of Coolidge-Hoover prosperity.”
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Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Corvus
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Thu Aug 23rd, 2007 11:30 pm |
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You fuckers . . .
Money grows on trees . . . I've perched next to a million dollar bill . . .
The Machine is fine.
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"In a person (not Corvus) who is open to experience each stimulus is freely relayed through the nervous system, without being distorted by any process of defensiveness." -C. Rogers
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Corvus
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Fri Aug 24th, 2007 12:25 am |
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Apathy is alive and well . . . this is the indicator of that which we fear.
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"In a person (not Corvus) who is open to experience each stimulus is freely relayed through the nervous system, without being distorted by any process of defensiveness." -C. Rogers
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Helgi
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Fri Aug 24th, 2007 10:44 am |
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| Currency is insanity to begin with. What we have today is ghost money under a different name. This smells a lot like the roaring 20s.
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"We have a lady who is most high and mighty, high she is and holy, nobles love her for this. She is called Freo, well does she direct them, Freo, our lady, we give to her Friday." -From the poem 'Brut', by the 13C poet Layamon
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*Phil*
Opinionated Interventionist
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Posted: Fri Aug 24th, 2007 03:42 pm |
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Right on que!
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Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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*Phil*
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Posted: Wed Aug 29th, 2007 03:52 pm |
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Contrary to mass media pundits GOLD is holding its own while the DJIA and S&P fall in disarray:
Reports from bullion dealers in Germany are that almost all their gold bullion is sold-out, with major delays in getting more. The Gold ETF GLD has more gold in it today than ever before, indicating that people continue to accumulate and not sell. The prices are being set at the margin by a few traders moving in-and-out and hedge funds needing cash.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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deRodes
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Wed Sep 12th, 2007 08:28 pm |
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How bad are things really in the states?
How many can you check off?
http://www.rense.com/general32/americ.htm
The Communist Takeover Of America - 45 Declared Goals
[From "The Naked Communist," by Cleon Skousen]
1. U.S. acceptance of coexistence as the only alternative to atomic war.
2. U.S. willingness to capitulate in preference to engaging in atomic war.
3. Develop the illusion that total disarmament [by] the United States would be a demonstration of moral strength.
4. Permit free trade between all nations regardless of Communist affiliation and regardless of whether or not items could be used for war.
5. Extension of long-term loans to Russia and Soviet satellites.
6. Provide American aid to all nations regardless of Communist domination.
7. Grant recognition of Red China. Admission of Red China to the U.N.
8. Set up East and West Germany as separate states in spite of Khrushchev's promise in 1955 to settle the German question by free elections under supervision of the U.N.
9. Prolong the conferences to ban atomic tests because the United States has agreed to suspend tests as long as negotiations are in progress.
10. Allow all Soviet satellites individual representation in the U.N.
11. Promote the U.N. as the only hope for mankind. If its charter is rewritten, demand that it be set up as a one-world government with its own independent armed forces. (Some Communist leaders believe the world can be taken over as easily by the U.N. as by Moscow. Sometimes these two centers compete with each other as they are now doing in the Congo.)
12. Resist any attempt to outlaw the Communist Party.
13. Do away with all loyalty oaths.
14. Continue giving Russia access to the U.S. Patent Office.
15. Capture one or both of the political parties in the United States.
16. Use technical decisions of the courts to weaken basic American institutions by claiming their activities violate civil rights.
17.Get control of the schools. Use them as transmission belts for socialism and current Communist propaganda. Soften the curriculum. Get control of teachers' associations. Put the party line in textbooks.
18. Gain control of all student newspapers.
19. Use student riots to foment public protests against programs or organizations which are under Communist attack.
20. Infiltrate the press. Get control of book-review assignments, editorial writing, policy-making positions.
21. Gain control of key positions in radio, TV, and motion pictures.
22. Continue discrediting American culture by degrading all forms of artistic expression. An American Communist cell was told to "eliminate all good sculpture from parks and buildings, substitute shapeless, awkward and meaningless forms."
23. Control art critics and directors of art museums. "Our plan is to promote ugliness, repulsive, meaningless art."
24. Eliminate all laws governing obscenity by calling them "censorship" and a violation of free speech and free press.
25. Break down cultural standards of morality by promoting pornography and obscenity in books, magazines, motion pictures, radio, and TV.
26. Present homosexuality, degeneracy and promiscuity as "normal, natural, healthy."
27. Infiltrate the churches and replace revealed religion with "social" religion. Discredit the Bible and emphasize the need for intellectual maturity, which does not need a "religious crutch."
28. Eliminate prayer or any phase of religious expression in the schools on the ground that it violates the principle of "separation of church and state."
29. Discredit the American Constitution by calling it inadequate, old-fashioned, out of step with modern needs, a hindrance to cooperation between nations on a worldwide basis.
30. Discredit the American Founding Fathers. Present them as selfish aristocrats who had no concern for the "common man."
31. Belittle all forms of American culture and discourage the teaching of American history on the ground that it was only a minor part of the "big picture." Give more emphasis to Russian history since the Communists took over.
32. Support any socialist movement to give centralized control over any part of the culture--education, social agencies, welfare programs, mental health clinics, etc.
33. Eliminate all laws or procedures which interfere with the operation of the Communist apparatus.
34. Eliminate the House Committee on Un-American Activities.
35. Discredit and eventually dismantle the FBI.
36. Infiltrate and gain control of more unions.
37. Infiltrate and gain control of big business.
38. Transfer some of the powers of arrest from the police to social agencies. Treat all behavioral problems as psychiatric disorders which no one but psychiatrists can understand [or treat].
39. Dominate the psychiatric profession and use mental health laws as a means of gaining coercive control over those who oppose Communist goals.
40. Discredit the family as an institution. Encourage promiscuity and easy divorce.
41. Emphasize the need to raise children away from the negative influence of parents. Attribute prejudices, mental blocks and retarding of children to suppressive influence of parents.
42. Create the impression that violence and insurrection are legitimate aspects of the American tradition; that students and special-interest groups should rise up and use ["]united force["] to solve economic, political or social problems.
43. Overthrow all colonial governments before native populations are ready for self-government.
44. Internationalize the Panama Canal.
45. Repeal the Connally reservation so the United States cannot prevent the World Court from seizing jurisdiction [over domestic problems. Give the World Court jurisdiction] over nations and individuals alike.
============
Why, you may ask?
John Cotton’s Milk for Babes (also known as Spiritual Milk
for Babes), a beginning catechism for children and young
Christians, was first published in the 1640s and remained
in print continuously for over 200 years. In a series of 64
questions and answers, it rehearses sin and the law, the
ten commandments, the role of the Church, the nature
of grace, the covenant, salvation, the sacraments, and the
last judgment. It is annotated with 203 marginal Bible
references on which Cotton based his statement of the
fundamental Puritan credo. In its 13 small pages, Cotton’s
catechism encompasses the Reformed Protestant faith in
simple, succinct, and eloquent language that passed into
general usage and, ultimately, into the New England
subconscious.
The oldest surviving copy of Milk for Babes was published
in London in 1646. It was reprinted many times on both
sides of the Atlantic, and at least eight editions from the
seventeenth century are known. Between 1690 and 1701, it
was first incorporated into The New-England Primer, and
it remained an essential component of that work and an
integral part of American religious education for the next
150 years.
John Cotton (1584–1652) was by most accounts the
preeminent minister and theologian of the Massachusetts
Bay Colony. He was educated at Cambridge and was a
leader of the Independents or Puritans in England. In
1633, to avoid prosecution for nonconformity, he came
to Massachusetts, where he served as “Teacher” for the
church in Boston until his death.
This online electronic edition of Milk for Babes contains
the entire text of the earliest known printing from 1646. It
also includes a brief textual history and an added appendix
giving the text of all 203 Bible passages cited, keyed to the
questions and answers to which Cotton applied them.
http://72.14.253.104/search?q=cache:WIcFROlzBYAJ:
digitalcommons.unl.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi%3Farticle%
3D1018%26context%3Detas+1691+new+england%2Bfirst
+primer%2Bcontext&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=13&gl=us&client=safari
===============
Education comprehends all that series of instruction and discipline which is intended to enlighten the understanding; correct the temper, and form the manners and habits of youth, and fit them for usefulness in their future stations To give children a good education in manners, arts and science, is important; to give them a religious education is indispensable; and an immense responsibility rests on parents and guardians who neglect these duties.
(Noah Webster’s definition of education from the 1828 American Dictionary of the English Language)
============
Today more the 700,000 high school graduates cannot read their own diploma.
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Politicians and diapers should be changed often - for the same reason!
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Death and life are in the power of the tongue, and those who love it will eat its fruit. Proverbs 18:21
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*Phil*
Opinionated Interventionist
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Posted: Thu Sep 13th, 2007 01:12 am |
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| I firmly believe that Putin harbors Soviet style designs on the West. He has no intention of playing fair (he will lie and sneak to look like a nice guy) and will use every opportunity to leverage power and disrupt the USA without actually revealing his secret ambitions.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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deRodes
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Thu Sep 13th, 2007 01:23 am |
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*Phil* wrote:
I firmly believe that Putin harbors Soviet style designs on the West. He has no intention of playing fair (he will lie and sneak to look like a nice guy) and will use every opportunity to leverage power and disrupt the USA without actually revealing his secret ambitions.
And the Left aka socialist in this country, especially the Clintons, are paving the way.
Putin is former KGB and it appears that he's headed in that direction once more. He's already in bed with Ahmadinejad. My interpretation of their pact goes something like this: If you help me wipe out Israel, I'll help you wipe out the US of A.
Of course, we both know what the Bible says will be the end result.
____________________
Politicians and diapers should be changed often - for the same reason!
_________________
Death and life are in the power of the tongue, and those who love it will eat its fruit. Proverbs 18:21
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*Phil*
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Posted: Thu Sep 13th, 2007 03:57 pm |
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In the end all paper will burn. The USA has bocome the paper king of the world.
I see yesterday and today:
Oil hit a new record at $80/bbl
Dollar hit a new record low.
Wheat hit a new record high.
Gasoline reserves hit a new low.
Foreign countries (e.g. China) have stopped buying US treasurtry bonds. Nobody trusts US credit anymore. This could be the real important news of the year.
Gold is showing its majesty scaring the market regulators into increasing margin requirements. Regulators never increase margin requirements if the price goes down.
The major financial companies (JP Morgan, Credit Suisse, etc) are openning a private equity exchange for unrelgulated securites, customers must have accounts of $100 million or more. This is reserved for the people who really run the show. I sure wish I could escape government regulation! LOL
Commodites are all bought and sold as paper representing something real. But the national producers of the real oil and the real wheat are pulling more and more off the paper market in reserve for themselves.
Russia is keeping oil for itself and announced they will no longer participate in the London and NY gold markets, they will instead buy directly from their gold mining companies.
OPEC says they will increase production 500,000 bbls but they never in reality reduced their production to match the announced quotas to begin with. OPEC is keeping more and more oil for themselves. China has established private deals with oil producers. Nobody believes OPEC anymore.
The tend is soon the official commodity exchanges will not be believed, people will not trust the contract to actually deliver the real oil, wheat, or metal; or for the US government to deliver real money to pay off our debts.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Roy
Quasi-Infallible Egocentric Tyrant
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Posted: Thu Sep 13th, 2007 07:00 pm |
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Makes me wonder how long 'til this economic bomb goes off and makes me wonder exactly what the effects will be.
Years ago, in the mid-90s when the economy was doing well, columnists like the one at Newsweek were crowing about the American economy and the reasons for the strong dollar vs the weaker Euro.
Now, all that has been turned on its head. Germany is stronger economically, and, while the birthrate of Europe is a problem, and they have a problem with immigrants potentially more dangerous than our own, the idea of exercising control over your territory by keeping out an array of goods that would destroy local industries looks better and better.
Meanwhile, where are these cheerleaders for Wall Street and pseudo-free market economics now?
Every idea and principle has its limit, and when in the course of events the validity of the opposite/complementary principle is denied, that situation will "correct" us with a vengeance, reducing our hubris to a much needed lesson in humility.
Tell us more, please, about this suspension of buying Treasury bonds by China. Thanks.
____________________
"The force and degree of a man's inner benevolence evokes in others a proportionate degree of ill-will" - Gurdjieff
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." — George Orwell
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Helgi
Honored Fellow Grover
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Posted: Sun Sep 16th, 2007 05:55 am |
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| When the economy tanks in America, I have a feeling the Finns will be sweating bullets. They are the only country in Scandinavia with any sort of army now so basicly they are the last line of defense between the peace loving swedes and Russia's Vodka/War machine.
____________________
"We have a lady who is most high and mighty, high she is and holy, nobles love her for this. She is called Freo, well does she direct them, Freo, our lady, we give to her Friday." -From the poem 'Brut', by the 13C poet Layamon
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*Phil*
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Posted: Sun Sep 16th, 2007 07:15 pm |
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____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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*Phil*
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Posted: Mon Sep 17th, 2007 02:28 am |
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French foreign minister warns of war over Iranian nukes
From Agence France-Presse
via Yahoo News
Sunday, September 16, 2007
PARIS — The world should brace for a possible war over the Iranian nuclear crisis, but seeking a solution through talks should take priority, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said on Sunday.
“We have to prepare for the worst, and the worst is war,” he said in an interview broadcast on French television and radio.
“We must negotiate right to the end,” with Iran, he said, but underlined that if Tehran possessed an atomic weapon, it would represent “a real danger for the whole world.”
Calling the nuclear standoff “the greatest crisis” of present times, the minister said: “We will not accept that the bomb is manufactured,” and hinted that military plans were on the way.
For the full story:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070916/wl_afp/franceirannuclear_070916193617;_ylt=Ar96lpUXof2Ld8K1nA9eV4qs0NUE
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Roy
Quasi-Infallible Egocentric Tyrant
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Posted: Mon Sep 17th, 2007 04:42 am |
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The French have returned to the most basic part of Cartesianims, rationality, and they have returned to their sense of elan and their self-esteem don't look too bad now, either. Yeah!
Now, if we could only cure them Froggies up in ol' Quebecois country to be a lot less, well, Froggy.
____________________
"The force and degree of a man's inner benevolence evokes in others a proportionate degree of ill-will" - Gurdjieff
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." — George Orwell
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