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*Phil*
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Posted: Wed Dec 6th, 2006 12:59 am |
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Dmitri Orlov, a Russian who lived through the collapse of USSR and now lives in the US, talks about what it was like in the USSR when its economy collapsed, and what it will be like when the US economy collapses.
http://energybulletin.net/23259.html
a couple of snippets:
Economic collapse affects public sector employment almost as much as private sector employment, eventually. Because government bureaucracies tend to be slow to act, they collapse more slowly. Also, because state-owned enterprises tend to be inefficient, and stockpile inventory, there is plenty of it left over, for the employees to take home, and use in barter. Most Soviet employment was in the public sector, and this gave people some time to think of what to do next.
Private enterprises tend to be much more efficient at many things. Such laying off their people, shutting their doors, and liquidating their assets. Since most employment in the United States is in the private sector, we should expect the transition to permanent unemployment to be quite abrupt for most people.
The American way of dealing with dissent and with protest is certainly more advanced: why imprison dissidents when you can just let them shout into the wind to their heart's content?
The American approach to bookkeeping is more subtle and nuanced than the Soviet. Why make a state secret of some statistic, when you can just distort it, in obscure ways? Here's a simple example: inflation is "controlled" by substituting hamburger for steak, in order to minimize increases to Social Security payments.
LOL! Sad that it is true.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Roy
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Posted: Wed Dec 6th, 2006 06:04 pm |
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That's when we will need to begin farming at home in our backyards, our rooftops and wherever it can be done.
With time on your hands and not much money, not only with home farming come back, but a surprising number of people will begin to make their own clothes, provide transportation for others, build energy efficient homes or learn to walk around in a "house-coat" as we all did for centuries.
If we are lucky, and we will be lucky to some extent, events such as Katrina or the recent ice storms in the Mid-West will prompt people to stockpile goods and to buy electric generators.
If I get some dough, I will buy land and pay it off and build a wind turbine there. Every home can be a net producer of energy.
Power Shift, The Third Wave: Toffler's books become more relevant than ever.
____________________
"The force and degree of a man's inner benevolence evokes in others a proportionate degree of ill-will" - Gurdjieff
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." — George Orwell
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Classic Woman
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Posted: Thu Dec 7th, 2006 02:21 am |
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Very interesting read Phil.
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*Phil*
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Posted: Fri Dec 8th, 2006 12:35 pm |
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Frugality, quality, and maintainability are some the lessons for us that I read from his presentation. It is a mind set that has to be learned from experience and practice.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings
Rudyard Kipling, 1919
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I Make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place.
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Heading said: "Stick to the Devil you know."
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four --
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
* * * * *
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man --
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began --
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire --
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Corvus
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Posted: Fri Dec 8th, 2006 12:48 pm |
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*Phil* wrote: Frugality, quality, and maintainability are some the lessons for us that I read from his presentation. It is a mind set that has to be learned from experience and practice.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings
Rudyard Kipling, 1919
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I Make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place.
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Heading said: "Stick to the Devil you know."
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four --
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
* * * * *
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man --
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began --
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire --
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
And my generation says . . . what FUCKING fun is that . . .
live a tad, Phil . . .
____________________
"In a person (not Corvus) who is open to experience each stimulus is freely relayed through the nervous system, without being distorted by any process of defensiveness." -C. Rogers
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*Phil*
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Posted: Fri Dec 8th, 2006 03:20 pm |
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Corvus wrote:
And my generation says . . . what FUCKING fun is that . . .
live a tad, Phil . . .
Nathan, you sound like a commercial!
He used to bring
beautiful women here...
Eat fine meals, drink fine wine,
listen to music...
But it always ended with screaming.
And I would listen to them...
screaming.
He was a genius.
It's just that the five senses
weren't enough for him, he wanted more
We'll be waiting for you,
Corvus!
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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*Phil*
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Posted: Thu Dec 21st, 2006 03:48 pm |
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Corvus wrote: *Phil* wrote: Frugality, quality, and maintainability are some the lessons for us that I read from his presentation. It is a mind set that has to be learned from experience and practice.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings
Rudyard Kipling, 1919
As I pass through my incarnations in every age and race,
I Make my proper prostrations to the Gods of the Market-Place.
Peering through reverent fingers I watch them flourish and fall,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings, I notice, outlast them all.
We were living in trees when they met us. They showed us each in turn
That Water would certainly wet us, as Fire would certainly burn:
But we found them lacking in Uplift, Vision and Breadth of Mind,
So we left them to teach the Gorillas while we followed the March of Mankind.
We moved as the Spirit listed. They never altered their pace,
Being neither cloud nor wind-borne like the Gods of the Market-Place.
But they always caught up with our progress, and presently word would come
That a tribe had been wiped off its icefield, or the lights had gone out in Rome.
With the Hopes that our World is built on they were utterly out of touch
They denied that the Moon was Stilton; they denied she was even Dutch
They denied that Wishes were Horses; they denied that a Pig had Wings.
So we worshipped the Gods of the Market Who promised these beautiful things.
When the Cambrian measures were forming, They promised perpetual peace.
They swore, if we gave them our weapons, that the wars of the tribes would cease.
But when we disarmed They sold us and delivered us bound to our foe,
And the Gods of the Copybook Heading said: "Stick to the Devil you know."
On the first Feminian Sandstones we were promised the Fuller Life
(Which started by loving our neighbour and ended by loving his wife)
Till our women had no more children and the men lost reason and faith,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "The Wages of Sin is Death."
In the Carboniferous Epoch we were promised abundance for all,
By robbing selected Peter to pay for collective Paul;
But, though we had plenty of money, there was nothing our money could buy,
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings said: "If you don't work you die."
Then the Gods of the Market tumbled, and their smooth-tongued wizards withdrew,
And the hearts of the meanest were humbled and began to believe it was true
That All is not Gold that Glitters, and Two and Two make Four --
And the Gods of the Copybook Headings limped up to explain it once more.
* * * * *
As it will be in the future, it was at the birth of Man --
There are only four things certain since Social Progress began --
That the Dog returns to his Vomit and the Sow returns to her Mire,
And the burnt Fool's bandaged finger goes wabbling back to the Fire --
And that after this is accomplished, and the brave new world begins
When all men are paid for existing and no man must pay for his sins
As surely as Water will wet us, as surely as Fire will burn
The Gods of the Copybook Headings with terror and slaughter return!
And my generation says . . . what FUCKING fun is that . . .
live a tad, Phil . . .
Wee! Wee! I want a tricycle! Gemmie one now!
Yeah Corvus enjoy yourself now because me and 70 million other old farts will retire long befor you and we'll expect - and get by Federal Social Security Law - SERVICE, hop to it, from you ungrateful slackers. 
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Corvus
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Posted: Fri Dec 22nd, 2006 09:16 am |
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Guess who works in a nursing home Phil . . . just wait until you need a digital stimulation . . . and I am the only one working . . . 
look that up . . . your SS money will be put to good use and pay from my many pleasures . . . why do you think I do this . . . Job Security my friend . . . and I am on my way up . . . I soon may be Assistant Director of a home for the oldfarts . . . shall I take your application now Phil . . . ?
http://www.nlm.nih.gov/medlineplus/ency/article/003971.htm
When I speak for my "generation" I don't necessarily speak for myself . . .
Last edited on Fri Dec 22nd, 2006 09:23 am by Corvus
____________________
"In a person (not Corvus) who is open to experience each stimulus is freely relayed through the nervous system, without being distorted by any process of defensiveness." -C. Rogers
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Nocturne
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Posted: Fri Dec 22nd, 2006 04:16 pm |
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I remember you saying you turned down many an offer of promotion Corvus...why the change of mind now?
The curious cat!
____________________
when will all this end?
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*Phil*
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Posted: Fri Dec 22nd, 2006 11:36 pm |
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Suppository Sunday's are the highlight of my week! I would demand no other but you Corvus give it to me! Too much Magnesium Citrate! eww... LOL
I already knew you worked in a nursing home. Think about the job security - 70,000,000 old geezers, and the money to pay for them will come out of your paycheck, more and more as needed! Is this a beautiful thing or what?
For a year, I worked in the psychiatric ward of a state run nursing home. Some, a very few, actually got better enough to go home. Many though got diagnosed as "Dementia" and a whole raft of other problems to boot. What a way to go, insane and in searing pain, it sucks massive wet rocks. 
I'm going to outsource, off shore, myself and retire to Asia. Where old people are treated by society (not government social programs - feh! But the people and culture ) with respect and difference. Then when I get too old and senile to take care of myself they steal my cirrhotic liver and the curtain closes on the performance of my life.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Corvus
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Posted: Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 04:45 am |
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Nocturne wrote: I remember you saying you turned down many an offer of promotion Corvus...why the change of mind now?
The curious cat!
This home is just about to open up . . . and it's an Assisted Living facility . . . it has no association with the can of worms I work in now. I will miss helping the "retarded", but old folks will stimulate my gray matter more.
It's interesting when I was young, prior to moving to Canada . . . the best friends on my block were people over the age of 60 . . . there were about 3 sets of couples I would visit . . . there old stuff intrigued the heck out of me . . . and I enjoyed adult conversation. I learned all about animal "trapping", cookie making, trains, and cacti. In Canada the neighbor I visited had a son with Downs Syndrome . . . funny where life takes a person . . . you can't escape your destiny.
____________________
"In a person (not Corvus) who is open to experience each stimulus is freely relayed through the nervous system, without being distorted by any process of defensiveness." -C. Rogers
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Roy
Quasi-Infallible Egocentric Tyrant
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Posted: Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 08:49 am |
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Corvone, I relate extremely well to older people as well. Even when I was a teenager and uncomfortable with how comfortable I was with them, it was there.
One of the older ladies of the neighborhood, a family friend, would take me aside and tell me stories of her life.
How did she know I was as interested as I was? I remember almost every significant point she made.
The last time I got to see a great uncle alive, he told me how he and his friend escaped the POW camp that they were in in WW2. Escaped from the Russians, that is.
My grandfather and he were ethnic Germans who were citizens of Yugoslavia, in Serbia to be exact, and they got drafted into the German army as it moved through Yugoslavia and ended up on the Russian Front.
I will find it tomorrow, but one of my favorite passages of Castaneda's books is the passage in The Power of Silence where he explains that older people get Intent but lack the physical capacity often to act on it causing......?
Last edited on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 08:52 pm by Roy
____________________
"The force and degree of a man's inner benevolence evokes in others a proportionate degree of ill-will" - Gurdjieff
"In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act." — George Orwell
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*Phil*
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Posted: Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 04:26 pm |
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Nyquist touched upon a curiously parallel theme in his latest article
8>< snipped ><8
So what is the solution for the young idealist sent to Congress by an electoral fluke? Like any condemned man there is only the option of a blindfold.
The trouble of our time can be spelled out in many ways. Simply put, socialism isn't dead, neither is the parasitism of its economics nor the tyrannical end point of its politics. The individual is weakened, the state is strengthened. The producer is punished, the parasite is fattened. Stupidity is flattered, intelligence is feared. From the supposed collapse of communism in Eastern Europe to the welfare sepulcher of Western Europe - the underlying theme is the same. And that theme is decline, senility and death.
To say the truth in these things is not defeatism. Who said the battle for liberty would be easy? Who misled us into thinking that history would consist of an uninterrupted string of glorious victories? Every struggle entails losses, and men must be strong enough to accept the worst as they struggle toward the best. If you cannot run, you walk. If you cannot walk, you crawl. If you cannot crawl, you wriggle. You fight on even if all around you have given up. Things are going to get very nasty before they get better. And don't expect a political leader to say anything truthful about the situation until our illusions are thoroughly extinguished.
http://www.financialsense.com/stormwatch/geo/analysis.htm
The elderly remember how civilians survive without infrastructure, having people shoot at you, having no money and expecting none for the forseeable future. The enemy even wearing the uniform of their own State. Everyone moves closer to God and each other..
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Helgi
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Posted: Mon Dec 25th, 2006 05:55 am |
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what's the last one from phil?
*Phil* wrote: Corvus wrote:
And my generation says . . . what FUCKING fun is that . . .
live a tad, Phil . . .
Nathan, you sound like a commercial!
He used to bring
beautiful women here...
Eat fine meals, drink fine wine,
listen to music...
But it always ended with screaming.
And I would listen to them...
screaming.
He was a genius.
It's just that the five senses
weren't enough for him, he wanted more
We'll be waiting for you,
Corvus!
____________________
"We have a lady who is most high and mighty, high she is and holy, nobles love her for this. She is called Freo, well does she direct them, Freo, our lady, we give to her Friday." -From the poem 'Brut', by the 13C poet Layamon
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*Phil*
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Posted: Mon Dec 25th, 2006 03:52 pm |
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Helgi, it is Stuard Gordon's film adaptation of
by H. P. Lovecraft
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0091083/
a cult movie definitely worth seeing.
"This brain is delicious!" LOL
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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Nocturne
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Posted: Tue Dec 26th, 2006 07:44 pm |
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Corvus wrote: Nocturne wrote: I remember you saying you turned down many an offer of promotion Corvus...why the change of mind now?
The curious cat!
This home is just about to open up . . . and it's an Assisted Living facility . . . it has no association with the can of worms I work in now. I will miss helping the "retarded", but old folks will stimulate my gray matter more.
It's interesting when I was young, prior to moving to Canada . . . the best friends on my block were people over the age of 60 . . . there were about 3 sets of couples I would visit . . . there old stuff intrigued the heck out of me . . . and I enjoyed adult conversation. I learned all about animal "trapping", cookie making, trains, and cacti. In Canada the neighbor I visited had a son with Downs Syndrome . . . funny where life takes a person . . . you can't escape your destiny.
That's great news, your sense of underdog justice, sense of outrage and decency will make any place you work in a better place...and if you are in a position of some power you a force for good in this weary world
seriously, take a fucking compliment and know that if you get this job then you will enrich the lives of the people there...
your friend (only over this Christmas period )
Nocturne
____________________
when will all this end?
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Psycho Gizmo
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Posted: Wed Dec 27th, 2006 10:37 am |
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To the topic I can say that years of self-inflicted poverty (in deference to my aspirations of being an "artist" in the 70's) have prepared me for the freedom of autochthonous existence. One good aspect of non-echnological society is that people expereince eachother more as equals because it erases the advantages that technological centralized society offers over others (powerful machines/services can be built or purchased by those with more money or skill).
That being said, I'd like to thank *Phil* for posting that stuff from the film "From Beyond "(one from my personal collection of films). I just bought that online after a lot of searching. I had to go to China to get one. Probably a pirate copy but if you can't buy an apple and you're hungry for one, you'll climb a tree and steal one if necessary.
Such is the power of appetite. I always thought that the film could just as easily been allegory for cocaine (or other psychotropic) drug addiction. Some of that is suggested by the dialogue and behavior of the principles.
But overall it's just a good story if you can suspend disbelief. The babe is amazing. And some of the lines are pretty cool.
"Humans are such easy prey". I see that line as delivered by a political PR firm. Perhaps the one that works for Howard Dean.
From Beyond is a film that is all about powering your own destruction with remarkably effective special effects for pre-CGI cinema.
I'll gladly mail my copy to any Grover for viewing since it is sometimes difficult to find at video stores for rental or purchase. Ask my Chinese friend (he gave me five stars on the EBay site, in broken English but very sweetly delivered).
One thing about simple folks- no simpleton ever built an atomic bomb. Although many are trying to procure them these days. And so am I. I want to be the most powerful being in the Universe, you see.
Last edited on Wed Dec 27th, 2006 10:43 am by
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*Phil*
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Posted: Thu Dec 28th, 2006 03:21 am |
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Psycho Gizmo wrote: I want to be the most powerful being in the Universe, you see.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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*Phil*
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Posted: Sat Jan 6th, 2007 03:45 pm |
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The dollar is too unreliable for most people...
http://www.brazil-land-sales.com/faq.htm
From a website selling South American real estate.
Q: May I finance my Lot purchase?
A: You may finance your Lot purchase.
1. Payoff period may be either 60 months (five years) or 120 months (ten years) your choice.
2. The minimum down payment is 10% of the purchase price, is the total amount required as a down payment for the lot of your choice.
3. The interest rate is fixed at 13.99% per year (fixed rate) for ten year loans and 10.00% per year on five year loans. These interest rates are based on payments being made in U.S. Dollars. If you will pay in a more stable currency, such as the Euro or the Brazilian Real, the interest rate would be about half the above rates, specifically 7% on ten year loans and 5% on five years loans. The U.S. Dollar has been rapidly devaluating in recent years and is projected to continue to devaluate. If you wish to finance and make payments in any other currency other than those mentioned above, please specify the currency you will make payments with and we will fix the interest rate based on the projected value of that currency for the length of the loan.
____________________
Pecca fortiter, sed fortius fide et gaude in Christo!
Galactic Signature: Blue Self-Existing Monkey
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deRodes
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Posted: Mon Sep 3rd, 2007 08:15 pm |
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This is long, but it does put a lot of interesting concepts together and it's worth the time it takes to read it.
Subject: An interesting read--WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON? A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR CEOs
This is a paper presented several weeks ago by Herb Meyer at the World
Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland which was attended by most of the CEOs from all the major international corporations -- a very good
summary of today's key trends and a perspective one seldom sees.
Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the U.S. National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with being the first senior U.S.Government official to forecast the Soviet Union's collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the author of several books.
WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON? A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR
CEOs
by HERBERT MEYER
FOUR MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS
Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political, economic and world events. These transformations have profound implications for American business leaders and owners, our culture and on our way of life.
1. The War in Iraq
There are three major monotheistic religions in the world: Christianity, Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and Christianity reconciled with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and scholars found a way to settle up and pave the way forward. Religion remained at the center of life, church and state became separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty, individual rights, human Rights-all these are defining point of modern Western civilization. These concepts started with the Greeks but didn't take off until the 15th and 16th century when Judaism and Christianity found a way to reconcile with the modern world. When that happened, it unleashed the scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of art, literature and music the world has ever known.
Islam, which developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around the world who are normal people. However, there is a radicalstreak within Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization. Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in the 16th and 17th centuries. By 1683, the Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman Empire) were literally at the gates of
Vienna. It was in Vienna that the climatic battle between Islam and Western civilization took place. The West won and went forward. Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly, the date of that battle was September 11. Since them, Islam has not found a way to reconcile with the modern world.
Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization byradical Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things. First, units of our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world hunting down terrorist groups and dealing with them. This gets very little publicity. Second we are taking military action in Afghanistan
and Iraq.
These actions are covered relentlessly by the media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is right or wrong. However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use our military to remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a chance. Our hope is that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring Islam forward into the 21st century. That's what our involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan is all about.
The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a small number of people can kill a large number of people very quickly. They can use airplanes, bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs. Even with a first-rate intelligence service (which the U.S. does not have), you can't stop every attack. That means our tolerance for political horseplay has dropped to zero. No longer will we play games with
terrorists or weapons of mass destructions.
Most of the instability and horseplay is coming from the Middle
East.
That's why we have thought that if we could knock out the radicals and give the moderates a chance to hold power, they might find a way to reconcile Islam with the modern world. So when looking at Afghanistan or Iraq, it's important to look for any signs that they are modernizing.
For example, women being brought into the work force and colleges in
Afghanistan is good. The Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is
good.
People can argue about what the U.S. is doing and how we're doing it,
but anything that suggests Islam is finding its way forward is good.
2. The Emergence of China
In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to find work for them. That's why China is addicted to manufacturing; they have to put all the relocated people to work.
When we decide to manufacture something in the U.S., it's based on
market needs and the opportunity to make a profit. In China, they make
the decision because they want the jobs, which is a very different
calculation.
While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to low prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has developed between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from China, they will explode politically. If China stops selling to us, our economy will take a huge hit because prices will jump. We are
subsidizing their economic development; they are subsidizing our economic growth.
Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is hungry for raw materials, which drives prices up worldwide. China is also thirsty fooil, which is one reason oil is now at $60 a barrel. By 2020, China will produce more cars than the U.S. China is also buying its way into the oil infrastructure around the world. They are doing it in the open market and paying fair market prices, but millions of barrels of oil that would have gone to the U.S. are now going to China. China's quest to assure it has the oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics and economics.
We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long before the Chinese have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well. The question is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same direction as ours or against us?
3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization
Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a steady population requires a birth rate of 2.1 In Western Europe, the birth rate currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which has a huge impact on the economy. When you don't have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to import them.
The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today, theMoslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany and France don't support the Iraq war is they fear their Moslem populations will explode on them. By 2020, more than half of all births in the Netherlands will be non-European.
The huge design flaw in the postmodern secular state is that you need a traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The Europeans simply don't wish to have children, so they are dying. In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60 million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very different society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just shutting down. Japan has already closed 2,000 schools, and is closing them down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.
Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world's major economic engines, aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This will have a huge impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen. Why are the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation between abandonment of traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in Europe is becoming irrelevant.
The second reason is economic. When the birth rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets worse. These countries have abandoned all the traditions they
formerly held in regard to having families and raising children.
The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase in population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the Anglo birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In the U.S., the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers. This will push the elder dependency
ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15 years. This is not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of trend.
Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive society understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children are huge consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That's how a society works, but the postmodern secular state seems to have forgotten that. If U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had been the same as post-World War II, there would be no Social Security or Medicare problems.
The world's most effective birth control device is money. As society creates a middle class and women move into the workforce, birth rates drop. Having large families is incompatible with middle class living.
The quickest way to drop the birth rate is through rapid economic development. After World War II, the U.S. instituted a $600 taxcredit per child. The idea was to enable mom and dad to have four children without being troubled by taxes. This led to a baby boom of 22 million kids, which was a huge consumer market. That turned into a huge tax base. However, to match that incentive in today's dollars would cost $12,000 per child.
China and India do not have declining populations. However, in both countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have the technology to know which is which before they are born. In China and India, many families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of these countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never find wives. When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100
girls. In some provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100 girls.
The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth's land surface and much of its oil. You can't control that much area with such a small population. Immediately to the south, you have China with 70 million unmarried men who are a real potential nightmare scenario for Russia.
4. Restructuring of American Business
The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of American business. Today's business environment is very complex and competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best.
A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now ntel makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even out sources their call center. Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at a lower cost. This is called a
fracturing of business. When one company can make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that serve and support each other.
This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation.
The companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing -outsourcing many of their core services and production process. As a result, they can make cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does.
Even very small businesses can have a large pyramid of corporate entities that perform many of its important functions. One aspect of this trend is that companies end up with fewer employees and more independent contractors. This trend has also created two new words in business, integrator and complementor. At the top of the pyramid, IBM is the integrator. As you go down the pyramid, Microsoft, Intel and
the other companies that support IBM are the complementors. However,
each of the complementors is itself an integrator for the complementors underneath it. This has several implications, the first of which is that we are now getting false readings on the economy.
People who used to be employees are now independent contractors launching their own businesses. There are many people working whos work is not listed as a job. As a result, the economy is perking alon better than the numbers are telling us.
Outsourcing also confused the numbers. Suppose a company like General Motors decides to outsource all its employee cafeteria functions to Marriott (which it did). It lays off hundreds of cafeteria workers, who then get hired right back by Marriott. The only thing that has changed is that these people work for Marriott rather than GM. Yet, the media headlines will scream that America has lost more manufacturing jobs. All that really happened is that these workers are now reclassified as service workers. So the old way of counting job contributes to false economic readings. As yet, we haven't figured out how to make the numbers catch up with the changing realities of the business world.
Another implication of this massive restructuring is that because companies are getting rid of units and people that used to work for them, the entity is smaller. As the companies get smaller and more efficient, revenues are going down but profits are going up. As a result, the old notion that revenues are up and we're doing great
isn't always the case anymore. Companies are getting smaller but are becoming more efficient and profitable in the process.
IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOUR TRANSFORMATIONS
1. The War in Iraq
In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan and Iraq have the beginnings of a modern government, which is a huge step forward. The Saudis are starting to talk about some good things, while Egypt and Lebanon are beginning to move in a good direction. A series of revolutions have taken place in countries like Ukraine and Georgia.
There will be more of these revolutions for an interesting reason. In every revolution, there comes a point where the dictator turns to the general and says, Fire into the crowd. If the general fires into the crowd, it stops the revolution. If the general says No, the revolution continues. Increasingly, the generals are saying No because their kids are in the crowd.
Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old outside the U.S. is very savvy about what is going on in the world, especially in terms of popular culture. There is a huge global consciousness, and young people around the world want to be a part of it. It is increasingly apparent to them that the miserable government where they live is the only thing standing in their way. More and more, it is the well-educated kids, the children of the generals and the elite, who are leading the revolutions.
At the same time, not all is well with the war. The level of violence in Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be improving. It's possible that we're asking too much of Islam all at one time. We're trying to jolt them from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further than they can go. They might make it and they might not.
Nobody knows for sure. The point is, we don't know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says they know is just guessing.
The real place to watch is Iran. If they actually obtain nuclear weapons it will be a terrible situation. There are two ways to deal with it. The first is a military strike, which will be very difficult. The Iranians have dispersed their nuclear development facilities and put them underground. The U.S. has nuclear weapons that can go under the earth and take out those facilities, but we don't want to do that.
The other way is to separate the radical mullahs from the government, which is the most likely course of action. Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but not Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many experts think the U.S. should have dealt with Iran before going to war with Iraq. The problem isn't so much the weapons, it's the people who control them. If Iran has a moderate government, the weapons become less of a concern.
We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq. We could lose or win. What we're looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st century and stabilizing.
2. China
It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into cities is too much too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average citizens who are angry with the government for air they breathe.
The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They may be able to pull it off and become a very successful economic and military superpower. If so, we will have to learn to live with it. If they want to share the responsibility of keeping the world's oil lanes open, that's a good thing. They currently have eight new nuclear electric power generators under way and 45 on the books to build. Soon, they will leave the U.S. way behind in their ability to generate nuclear power.
What can go wrong with China? For one, you can't move 550 million people into the cities without major problems. Two, China really wants Taiwan, not so much for economic reasons, they just want it. The Chinese know that their system of communism can't survive much longer in the 21st century. The last thing they want to do before they morph into some sort of more capitalistic government is to take over Taiwan.
We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan. If so, it will be a mess, both economically and militarily. The U.S. has committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will we really go to war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan, every treaty the U.S. has will be worthless. Hopefully, China won't do anything stupid.
3. Demographics
Europe and Japan are dying because their populations are aging and shrinking. These trends can be reversed if the young people start breeding. However, the birth rates in these areas are so low it will take two generations to turn things around. No economic model exists that permits 50 years to turn things around. Some countries are beginning to offer incentives for people to have bigger families. For example, Italy is offering tax breaks for having children. However, it's a lifestyle issue versus a tiny amount of money. Europeans aren't willing to give up their comfortable lifestyles in order to have more children.
In general, everyone in Europe just wants it to last a while longer. Europeans have a real talent for living. They don't want to work very hard. The average European worker gets 400 more hours of vacation time per year than Americans. They don't want to work and they don't want to make any of the changes needed to revive their economies.
The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a heat wave. In August, the country basically shuts down when everyone goes on vacation.
That year, a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly people living in nursing homes and hospitals died. Their children didn't even leave the beaches to come back and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to scramble to find enough refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people came to claim them. This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in America, yet it didn't trigger any change in French society.
When birth rates are so low, it creates a tremendous tax burden on the young. Under those circumstances, keeping mom and dad alive is not an attractive option. That's why euthanasia is becoming so popular in most European countries. The only country that doesn't permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany, because of all the baggage from World War II.
The European economy is beginning to fracture. Countries like Italy are starting to talk about pulling out of the European Union because it is killing them. When things get bad economically in Europe, they tend to get very nasty politically. The canary in the mine is anti-Semitism. When it goes up, it means trouble is coming. Current levels of anti- Semitism are higher than ever.
Germany won't launch another war, but Europe will likely get shabbier, more dangerous and less pleasant to live in. Japan has a birth rate of 1.3 and has no intention of bringing in immigrants. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be 70 years old. Property values in Japan have dropped every year for the past 14 years. The country is simply shutting down. In the U.S. we also have an aging population. Boomers are starting to retire at a massive rate. These retirements will have several major impacts:
Possible massive selloff of large four-bedroom houses and a movement to condos.
An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers vote, and they want their benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to get them. Social Security will be a huge problem. As this generation ages, it will start to drain the system. We are the only country in the world where there are no age limits on medical procedures.
An enormous drain on the health care system. This will also increase the tax burden on the young, which will cause them to delay marriage and having families, which will drive down the birth rate even further.
Although scary, these demographics also present enormous opportunities for products and services tailored to aging populations. There will be tremendous demand for caring for older people, especially those who don't need nursing homes but need some level of care. Some people will have a business where they take care of three or four people in their homes. The demand for that type of service and for products to physically care for aging people will be huge.
Make sure the demographics of your business are attuned to where the action is. For example, you don't want to be a baby food company in Europe or Japan. Demographics are much underrated as an indicator of where the opportunities are. Businesses need customers. Go where the customers are.
4. Restructuring of American Business
The restructuring of American business means we are coming to the end of the age of the employer and employee. With all this fracturing of businesses into different and smaller units, employers can't guarantee jobs anymore because they don't know what their companies will look like next year. Everyone is on their way to becoming an independent contractor.
The new workforce contract will be: Show up at the my office five days a week and do what I want you to do, but you handle your own insurance, benefits, health care and everything else. Husbands and wives are becoming economic units. They take different jobs and work different shifts depending on where they are in their careers and families. They make tradeoffs to put together a compensation package to take care of the family.
This used to happen only with highly educated professionals with high incomes. Now it is happening at the level of the factory floor worker.
Couples at all levels are designing their compensation packages based on their individual needs. The only way this can work is if everything is portable and flexible, which requires a huge shift in the American economy.
The U.S. is in the process of building the world's first 21st century model economy. The only other countries doing this are U.K. and Australia. The model is fast, flexible, highly productive and unstable in that it is always fracturing and re-fracturing. This will increase the economic gap between the U.S. and everybody else, especially Europe and Japan.
At the same time, the military gap is increasing. Other than China, we are the only country that is continuing to put money into their military. Plus, we are the only military getting on-the-ground military experience through our war in Iraq. We know which high- tech weapons are working and which ones aren't. There is almost no one who can take us on economically or militarily.
There has never been a superpower in this position before. On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the
best place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace.
We take it for granted, but it isn't as available in other countries of the world. Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture, we become just like the Europeans.
The culture war is the whole ballgame. If we lose it, there isn't
another America to pull us out.
(Hey, deRodes, I took the liberty to compact the post a bit, and I hope you won't mind. Great speech! Am going to be thinking about this.)
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Politicians and diapers should be changed often - for the same reason!
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Death and life are in the power of the tongue, and those who love it will eat its fruit. Proverbs 18:21
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